Market update, Demographics, Your target market, and Laughter.
Economic News – was it good news or bad news?
Well, the stock market ended the week strong, so I’m guessing the news was mostly good.
And by ‘good’, that means good for the stock market and good for the Federal Reserve.
And it was. Mostly. The biggest thing was consumer sentiment. It was up from 69.7 to 78.8 with 100 being very good.
That’s a solid jump, and the stock market liked it.
Residential housing numbers came in steady but at the lowest level in years. By the way, the numbers are annualized. Wait… what?! Yep. They take the December number, annualize it and adjust for seasonality. I would really just prefer it if they gave us the raw number or a trailing 12-month number, but I’m not in charge.
Housing starts at 1.46 million, a tad less than last month's 1.53 million. It was the first drop in four months.
Building permits at 1.5 million, up from 1.47 million.
Annualized existing home sales were at 3.78 million, down from 3.82 million last month.
This is the lowest level in 29 years.
This makes it a tight housing market, driven by historically low rates. If you are a homeowner, you really must have a good reason to sell and get out of your 3% mortgage and get a new one that’s double that number.
But builders were optimistic about 2024.
The really big thing was retail sales for the holiday season. Those exceeded expectations. That’s good for the stock market but not so good for ‘cooling’ the economy and getting the Fed to lower rates. BTW, retail sales were up 0.6% over the previous month; expectations were 0.4%.
While we are annualizing things, that would be a 7.2% annual rate.
This week, we have Q4 GDP numbers on Wednesday and the PCE index on Thursday. Expectations are 1.7% for the GDP number and 0.2% (2.4% annualized) for the core PCE number. Keep those numbers in mind when you hear the actual results.
1099s. It is that time of year again. Tax forms, specifically, the 1099.
Of course, businesses have been dealing with the 1099 for years.
There are 17 different 1099 forms. Just ask your CPA.
The $600 requirement for TSPOs – Third Party Settlement Organizations – to issue 1099s was pushed back. It was supposed to take effect for the tax year 2023. Nope – the IRS is pushing that to the tax year 2025.
For 2024, you must have $5000 in transactions before a 1099k is generated.
As it stands for 2025 if you sell any show or game or pay someone back for a total of $600 or more, the IRS is going to know about it.
Assuming the IRS doesn’t push that back, too. Which they should, because if they don’t, that is another estimated 30,000,000 1099k forms that will get sent out.
On a separate note, the postal service lobby is pushing hard for that change; they can use the revenue.
And that’s what being a taxpayer is all about.
If you don’t like it, write a letter to the person you voted for.
Better yet, research the person you are voting for.
Demographics
The US will stop growing by 2080 and will shrink slightly by 2100.
That’s what the Census Bureau says.
Some folks have it pegged at 2060.
The United States will peak at 370,000,000 before shrinking slightly to 366,000,000. Why?
Years of declining birth rates.
In a related story, the number of fur babies is increasing dramatically; everyone would rather get a pet than a baby. Don’t get me started…
Higher death rates because of an aging population.
The impact is significant because of a decreasing tax base and a rising number of people on government services, such as Social Security and Medicare. Oh, and by the way…
Social Security payouts start reducing around 2032.
It’s no longer decades away; that’s in 8 years.
Medicare payouts will be less starting in 2031.
Coincidentally, the UN has the year 2100 pegged for the world’s population to start falling.
That’s also how you reduce a carbon footprint; problem solved in 75 years.
Speaking of Demographics… Are teens part of your target market?
What apps are teens using? Pew Research says:
YouTube. 93% of 13 to 17-year-olds say they use the site, which has the ability to follow, comment, and share.
60% say they use TikTok, Snapchat and Instagram.
That’s all well and good, but fame can be fleeting.
In 2014, 71% of teens reported using Facebook, vs. 33% this year.
X is used by only 20% of teens, which is not a good sign for Elon.
So, if teens are part of your target market, YouTube and the ‘Gram are it.
One more thing and this is purely anecdotal.
Someone I was talking to mentioned the mistake that folks like me – meaning of a certain age and let’s call that 50+ or perhaps even a little less – think of smartphones as an add-on or ancillary tool for personal and business use.
Well, for millennials and Gen Z’ers, it’s the main thing; there’s nothing ancillary about it. If, as a business owner, product manager, or salesperson, you don’t think your buyers are doing most of their work, shopping, and research on their phone, you have already missed the boat.
The Last Laugh…
Dan
Dan was born in 1922 on a carnival train near the town of Begg, Oklahoma. His parents performed a singing and dancing act in the carnival. He was orphaned at the age of 11, spending 4 years in an orphanage before being taken in at a foster home at 16. After high school, he hitchhiked to Los Angeles and got a job in the mailroom at Paramount Studios.
In World War II, he was a fighter pilot in a P-40 with two kills before being shot down and seriously wounded in the Pacific.
Dick
Dick was born in Battle Creek, Michigan, to a salesman and a homemaker, also in 1922. He had tuberculosis as a teenager, which is what kept him out of the military. Early in his career, he was a staff writer for a radio situation comedy.
I guess they call those podcasts now.
On this date in 1968, Dan Rowan and Dick Martin debuted Rowan and Martin’s Laugh-In.
For those of us Boomers, that’ll bring back a memory or two. It was our version of Saturday Night Live.
Laugh-In ran until 1973. I don’t think it’s any coincidence that SNL started in 1975. A laughter vacuum always needs to be filled.
You may find it “very interesting” to “look it up in your Funk & Wagnalls” so you can “sock it to me.” You’ll find it on YouTube.
At least watch the opening monologue.
Regardless, make it a point to have your own Laugh-In on a daily basis. It’ll make your day that much better.
