It’s 2024!! Expectations, Market Trivia, Electric Trucks and Lombardi Time.
It’s a New Year, so let’s get on with it!
What to Expect for 2024
The general feeling is that the economy will dodge a recession. It has been stubbornly strong and won’t be brought down.
Gross Domestic Product will drop to 1.7% for 2024.
GDP for 2023 is expected to be 2.5%.
If your company’s growth matches GDP, plan accordingly, but you really should be shooting higher.
You might also plan for some of your customers to experience a slowdown.
Inflation’s downward trend will continue, with some outlets stating that the CPI – consumer price index – will hit 2% mid-year but finish at 2.7%. I think it will continue down, but not hit 2%.
For November 2023, the year-over-year CPI was 3.1%
For 2022, it was 8.0%.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has a CPI Inflation calculator. So I played around with it.
The same purchase that cost $100 in January 2020, now costs $119.
So I plugged in the price of a $6 burger in 2001. The calculator says it should now cost $10.95.
A cheeseburger today at Friday’s in So Cal costs $13.99. In Greenville, South Carolina, it’s $11.59. It's a pretty close approximation if you’re not in California.
But, as I have always said, it’s expensive, but everything is included.
The Fed will cut interest rates. It is expected the first cut will be in May. If you are a borrower, that is a welcome relief.
According to the Institute for Supply Management, manufacturing will be increasing capital spending by 12%.
That’s a very good sign!
Jobs are holding strong with unemployment at 3.7%.
The ADP new hire report and the US employment report both came in much higher than expectations. ADP at 164,000 (34,000 over expectations) and the US report came in at 216,000 (46,000 over expectations).
Folks, all these signs are good. The question for your next mixer is, are they too good? Will the Fed wait to lower rates? Keep an eye on the employment numbers – that’s the key.
Financial Markets Bits and Pieces – 2023
Top commodity? Cocoa. Yep, the value of cocoa increased 61% in 2023.
Poorest performing commodity? Natural gas is down 43.8%.
For those who are wondering:
Gold – up 13.34%
Coffee – up 12.55%
Corn – down 30.55%
Lean hogs – down 22.49%. I wonder how fat hogs did…
Let’s look at stocks
Carvana, the used car vending machine folks – up 1016%. Yep, not missing a decimal there. Many folks thought they were headed for bankruptcy court about a year ago. If you invested a year ago, you got rewarded for your risk.
Ault Alliance – the bitcoin mining folks - down 99.6%. Bitcoin is not so much in favor anymore.
Overall, the S&P 500 was up 24.2%.
Your retirement account is very happy.
And the 30 Dow Jones stocks averaged 13.7%
Helped by Salesforce stock up 98.5%
Hurt by Walgreens, down 30.1%
Electric Truck Logistics
The Wall Street Journal did a ride along in an electric truck operated by a drayage company out of the Port of Long Beach. It’s a good read, and here is the Reader’s Digest version:
The driver was able to make two deliveries; that doesn’t seem like much.
It’s not. After the first delivery, the truck needed to recharge, and then during the second delivery, the truck needed to charge again at a charger that was 33 miles out of the way and required 90 minutes of charging.
And that was it for the day.
The driver stated that in a diesel truck, he normally would have been able to make 6 deliveries. Without refueling.
While the driver is paid by the hour, he receives incentives for each delivery.
There is a lot more incentive with six deliveries instead of two. As it turns out, the driver is getting a $400/month cut in pay.
Oh, and the drayage company tacked a surcharge onto the bill to its customers to make up for the four deliveries it couldn’t make.
Until this whole electric thing sorts itself out economically, keep the extra costs in mind and adjust your 2024 plan accordingly.
…and finally, a little-known fact…
Some background first. Lambeau Field is home to the National Football League Green Bay Packers, the only major sports team that is a non-profit, community-owned venture. It has been playing at Lambeau Field since 1957, and it has the most wins of any NFL team. In the 1960s, they were coached by a fellow by the name of Vince Lombardi, after whom the Super Bowl trophy is named. There is no question of the massive influence this franchise has had in the NFL and in sports in general.
Back in 2012, Lambeau Field management installed a very large clock over the main entrance to the field. The time was set to be 15 minutes ahead of what the time really was. And why was this done? This was known as “Lombardi Time”. Along with his mantra of “Winning isn’t everything; it’s the only thing,” Lombardi firmly believed that If you weren’t at a meeting 15 minutes early, you were late.
And that’s why the clock at Lambeau Field is set 15 minutes ahead of the actual time.
The most important thing in life, business or personal, is timeliness. You never get a second chance to make a first impression, so at least make the first hurdle by showing up on time.
Better yet, make it a New Year’s Resolution to be on “Lombardi Time.” You won’t regret it. By being “on Lombardi time”, you’ll be able to settle down, collect your thoughts and focus on that important meeting and the impression you want to make. By being on Lombardi time, you’re halfway there!
See you next week!
