A Plethora…
… of information.
The date to watch: December 3. The double witching hour when both the funding for federal agencies expires AND the Treasury Department estimates that the debt ceiling will be hit. No discussions about that in the news. Wait, where’s that $1.2T supposed to come from???
Scenes from the 12th Annual Inland Empire Economic Forecast Conference, featuring Christopher Thornburg from UC Riverside:
Fun Fact: For every dollar in lost wages, the government covered that with $3.50. Even if you don’t know the technical definition of “money supply”, you don’t have to be an economist to know that when you replace 1 of something with 3 ½ of something, you are going to have a whole lot of that something.
That’s a good thing, because you are going to need something to pay for the Thanksgiving dinner you are putting together and your Christmas presents.
Second Fun Fact: the supply of turkey in cold storage is down 20% this year, and when supply goes down… You might want to buy your turkey sooner than later. Just sayin’.
The Trend Line
The workforce has been growing at a decreasing rate and in fact is now shrinking; but that is just continuing the trend, not starting a new one. Getting workers has been a problem for a while.
We are just not making babies like we used to.
Completely unrelated fun fact: world population will peak in 2064 at 9.7B and decline to 8.8B in 2100. More on that some other time.
The rent issue isn’t an issue
While there are some renters that have problems paying rent, the amount has been minimal as evidenced by California not being able to give away the rent-aid and buying adds on the radio to get it spent.
On the employee side of things, California simply doesn’t have enough workers; it’s a function of housing supply and costs, with many low skilled workers moving out of state.
That was news to me; I’ll see what I can find out.
US unemployment is at 4.6%; California is at 7.5%. See the bullet above but it does imply there are some workers out there.
Inflation – “Out, damned inflation! Out, I say!” With all apologies to Lady Macbeth, that is what the administration has been saying. Until this week.
The 12 month run rate for inflation came in at a higher than expected 6.2%.
So if your salary wasn’t increased by 6.2%, you got a cut in pay.
Realizing that the only way they are going to get a 6.2% increase in pay, 4.4 million workers quit their jobs in September. For real.
Folks, now is the time to revamp your wage structure at your company, assuming you want to keep your workers.
Alternatively, you give big bumps to the employees you like and no bump to the underperformers; the problem solves itself.
Or, as I have said in the past, find out what floats their boat. Is it pay, time off, benefits, training?
How do you pay for that? You raise your prices. Don’t worry, your customers are expecting it and they are doing it too.
$1,200,000,000,000
That’s $1.2 trillion.
This is the infrastructure bill that President Biden is signing today, November 15.
Some tidbits:
$110 Billion for roads and bridges
$66B for rail
$65B for internet access
$65B for the electric grid
$55B for water infrastructure
Etc. etc. etc.
California gets $45B; I was concerned at first because the state is not known for judicious spending habits, but never fear, a czar will be appointed by the administration to make sure the funds are spent appropriately. I do feel much better now.
Next week, the Thanksgiving Issue.
